The PA Legislature has adjourned voting session ahead of the November 5 elections. Both the House and Senate have two session days scheduled for mid-November to wrap up the 2023-24 legislative term and elect caucus leadership for the 2025-26 legislative term. There have not been any significant votes after the General Election in years, although the Senate may need to take some “clean up” votes this year to get an agreed-to judicial package to the Governor.

Senate Session Days Remaining: November 13, 14

House Session Days Remaining: November 12, 13

All eyes are truly on the November elections as so many hotly contested Pennsylvania elections will be decided with tremendous implications for the next several years. Below is a brief analysis with predictions based on polling, previous election outcomes, district maps and “vibes”. If I could predict the elections outlined below with more certainty, I would quit my job as a lobbyist and head to a casino. So please be kind to my predictions.

Federal

• US Senate - Three-term Democratic Incumbent Bob Casey faces a well-funded challenge from Republican Dave McCormick. Casey has been a moderate and broadly popular Senator across PA. He’s always been strong electorally and has maintained a solid lead on McCormick through most of the campaign, though McCormick has closed the gap in recent polls as things tighten leading up to Election Day. I’d project that the most likely outcome here is a Casey victory as he historically outperforms other Democrats on the ticket when he runs, though national outlets have recently labeled the close race a toss-up.
  
  
• US Congress - There are really 5 competitive Congressional elections across PA which will be key to determining control of the US House. More on those races can be read here.

State

• Row Offices - Statewide elections for row offices are all tightly contested this cycle. I’d tend to rate them all a toss-up - there’s not been a consistent favorite in polling statewide, as has been the case at the top of the ticket. PA voters have been tough to predict for these offices, which we saw in the 2020 election.
  
  
• • Attorney General - Seat is vacated by Michelle Henry, who was appointed to finish the term vacated by Governor Shapiro when he assumed the Governorship in 2023. Eugene DePasquale (D) is running against Dave Sunday (R). DePasquale has been elected statewide, where he served as a two-term Auditor General. Sunday has served as Attorney General for York County since 2018. I’d give DePasquale a very slight edge here given statewide name ID and strong fundraising/field work.
    
    
  • Auditor General - Incumbent Tim DeFoor (R) looks to fend off a challenge from State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta (D).
    
    
  • Treasurer - Incumbent Stacy Garrity (R) looks to fend off a challenge from Erin McClelland (D). Governor Shapiro endorsed the Democratic candidates in the other two row offices, but has not endorsed McClelland.
    
    
• State Senate - Republicans currently hold a 28-22 majority in the Senate. Twenty-five of the 50 Senate seats are up for election this year. In order for Democrats to gain control of the chamber, they must hold on to one open seat and flip three others in swing districts. My current best projection is that Dems hold the open seat and flip one other, leaving us with a Republican majority of 27-23.
  
  
• • SD 15 - In an open seat vacated by Republican John DiSanto, Representative Patty Kim (D) hopes to move to the Senate in a race against Dauphin County Treasurer Nick DiFrancesco (R). This district became more friendly for Democrats in 2022’s redistricting, so I’d give the edge to Representative Kim.
    
    
  • SD 37 - Incumbent Devlin Robinson (R) hopes to fend off a well-organized challenge from public school teacher Nicole Ruscitto (D). Robinson is broadly known as a moderate Republican in the suburban Allegheny County district, though Ruscitto has consistently framed the incumbent as anti-choice. The incumbent Robinson has a slight edge by most assessments, though Democrats are running hard to unseat him and expect a tight race.
    
    
  • SD 45 - In an open seat vacated by Democrat Jim Brewster, Representative Nick Pisciottano (D) hopes to move to the Senate in a race against Jen Dintini (R). This district became slightly more friendly to Democrats in 2022’s redistricting. Pisciottano has governed as a relatively moderate, pro-labor Representative and Dintini is a first-time candidate for office who owns a corporate security business. I’d give the edge to Representative Pisciottano given name ID, ground game, and district makeup, though Republicans are also running hard to win this vacant seat.
    
    
  • SD 49 - Incumbent Dan Laughlin (R) hopes to fend off a well-organized challenge from Erie Democratic Party Chair Jim Wertz. Laughlin, also broadly known as a moderate Republican, has been entangled with Wertz in two lawsuits the last few years. Wertz operates a local news publication and was sued by Laughlin for $1 million in August 2022 for writing an article critical of Laughlin and former President Trump. Laughlin and his wife were then sued by Wertz for allegedly removing hundreds of free copies of that publication from markets and stores in 2022. Laughlin has the edge here as the incumbent in a seat that he won with nearly 60% of the vote in 2020.
    
    
• State House - Democrats currently hold a 102 - 101 majority in the State House. All 203 seats are on the ballot this year, though only 110 of them will be contested by a challenger. There are approximately ten races close enough that will decide control of the state House. Many of these races will be tight, and control of the House will likely be dictated by performance at the top of the ticket. My current best projection is that Democrats are very slightly favored to retain control of the House, though it’s uncertain what those final majority numbers may look like.
  
  
• • Vulnerable Republican seats:
  • • Rep. Joe Hogan (R., Bucks) in the 142nd District won by fewer than 80 votes in 2022. He is challenged by Anna Payne, a Middletown Township supervisor. 
    • Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R., Bucks) also faces a challenger from Anand Patel, a former Bensalem Township School Board director and small business owner, in the 18th District.
    • Rep. Craig Williams (R., Delaware) will also face a challenge from Elizabeth Moro, a business owner, in the 160th District.
    • Rep. Joe Emrick (R., Northampton), who represents the 147th District, will face a tough challenge from Anna Thomas.
    • Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R., Allegheny), in the 44th District is facing a challenge from Hadley Haas, a gun reform advocate.
      
      
  • Vulnerable Democratic seats:
  • • Rep. Brian Munroe (D., Bucks) faces a challenge from Republican Daniel McPhillips in the 144th District.
    • Rep. Frank Burns (D., Cambria), is defending his seat against Amy Bradley, the president of the local chamber of commerce, in the 72nd District.
    • Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D., Erie), faces Republican challenger Micah Goring, a small-business owner and U.S. Air Force veteran, in the 3rd District.
    • Rep. Rob Matzie (D., Beaver), faces Republican challenger Michael Perich in the 16th District.
    • Rep. Mandy Steele (D., Allegheny) faces Republican challenger Gary Lotz in the 33rd District.